How these predictions work
This prediction is schedule-derived. It does not measure the live queue. It estimates how many passengers will reach security in each 15-minute period and compares that demand to how many the checkpoint can process.
Where does the flight data come from?
Departure times and aircraft types come from the published Luton departures board, provided by AeroDataBox. The schedule is pulled on a fixed daily job, not on every visit, so the prediction is stable through the day and stays within data limits.
How are passenger numbers estimated?
Each flight's aircraft type maps to a typical seat count. We multiply seats by a blended load factor of 90% to estimate passengers on board. UK low-cost carriers routinely publish load factors in the 90-94% range, so 90% is a conservative blend.
How is the queue predicted?
Passengers do not arrive all at once. We spread each flight's passengers across a show-up curve that opens 180 minutes before departure and peaks around 60-90 minutes out. Adding every flight's contribution gives the number of people reaching security in each 15-minute period.
How much can security process?
We assume each lane clears about 165 passengers per hour (new-generation CT scanners, no liquids or laptops removed). The number of open lanes varies by time of day: about 16 during the morning peak, 12 through the day, and 6 in the quiet early hours. When demand rises above capacity, a queue builds and the estimated wait grows.
How accurate is it?
It is an advisory estimate, not a live measurement. Lane counts, staffing, disruption, and no-shows all move the real queue. Treat it as a planning guide, check official Luton Airport sources, and always leave a buffer.